55% Rule Does Not Always Work

Checks and Balances makes an effort [reg req'd] to set the stage for the battle for the Minnesota legislature. The post is a nice effort, but I need to point out that the 55% rule does not always work. C&B says...

We have once again taken a gander at the past legislative races and have found that, based on a 55% or less rule (based on the 2004 election), there are 46 house seats and 26 senate seats (based on the 2002 election) worth watching during this election cycle. We have included the results from these races for you to view for yourself. Of the 46 house seats, 19 are held by DFLers and 27 by Republicans. In the senate, of the 26 seats 11 are in the hands of the DFL and 15 held by Republicans. This means there are 34.3% of the house races and 38.8% of the senate races are “in play”. Now each one is not necessary going to change hands, but if Democrats expect to take the majority in the house, they need to retain all 66 of their current seats and there is only one open DFL seat on this list. In order for the Republicans to retain their majority, they need hold on to all 68 of their current seats and five of these are open this election. On the senate side if the Republicans seek to take control they need to retain all of their 29 of their current seats and hold the three of them that now are open. On the other hand the DFL majority needs to hold their 38 seats of which five are now open. We will provide ongoing coverage of the house races in 01B, 02B, 03B, 04A, 08B, 09A, 12A, 12B, 13B, 14B, 16A, 17A, 17B, 20B, 22B, 23A, 25B, 26A, 26B, 27B, 28A, 29B, 30A, 30B, 31B, 32A, 32B, 37A, 38A, 38B, 39A, 40A, 41B, 42B, 43B, 45A, 47A, 47B, 50B, 51A, 52B, 53A, 54B, 55A, 56A and 56B and races in senate districts 04, 08, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 23, 24, 25, 27, 28, 30, 31, 38, 42, 43, 47, 48, 50, 51, 52, 53, 56, 57 and 63. We encourage our readers to keep us apprised of any developments in these districts they feel are worth discussing. To see the entire list of house seats click here: http://www.checksandbalances.com/House_55_Races_2004.xls To see the entire list of senate seats click here: http://checksandbalances.com/Senate_55_Races_2002.xls

The article ask for help so I will offer some. I recommend that they keep an eye on the 63B race in east Richfield and Bloomington. In 2004 the Republicans fielded a young, unmarried, hard-working and relatively inexperienced candidate in Pat Kirby. On top of these disadvantages his campaign got a very late start so his 37.97% was not a surprise. This year the Republicans are fielding an exceptional candidate in Vern Wilcox and the seat is open because Dan Larson is running for the SD63 Senate seat vacated by Jane Ranum's retirement. Vern has an exceptionally long list of experience, accomplishments and proven electoral success. This seat is VERY MUCH in play.